Trading in the foreign exchange currency markets has recently exceeded $2 trillion a day and this figure is expected to double within the next five years.

The reason for this astonishing surge in trading popularity is quite simple: no commissions, low transaction costs, easy access to online currency markets, no middlemen, no fixed lot order sizes, high liquidity, low margin with high leverage, and limited regulations. These factors have already attracted the attention of both neophyte traders and veteran speculators in other financial markets.

In this volume, special focus is given to the five most frequently traded Forex currency pairs: the U.S. Dollar, the Euro currency, the British Pound, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. It is estimated that trading among these five pairs comprises 78 percent of all orders in the spot currency markets.

ABOUT THIS BOOK

This book was written specifically for those currency and futures traders who have a reasonable degree of experience in the foreign exchange markets and who are familiar with the inner trading mechanisms and the risks and rewards intrinsically involved. For novice currency traders, we highly recommend Getting Started in Currency Trading by the co-authors of this book (Wiley, 2005) as a comprehensive primer for entering this once exclusive arena of investing.

The authors have intentionally followed the thematic precedent established in their previously published book entitled The Forex Chartist Companion (Wiley, 2007). That precedent is to make each technical analysis opus as visual and graphic as possible, replete with numerous charts, tables, and explanatory diagrams. Many of the innovative tools introduced in that work (FCC) are employed here, and the underlying theme is again borne out in this tome: The most lethal weapons in the successful traders’ arsenals are the diversity and creativity of their technical charts.

HOW THIS BOOK IS ORGANIZED

There are eight major divisions in this book:

Part I: Getting Started
In this section, we expose little known characteristics unique to spot currency data and define the mathematical and statistical tools that facilitate the visual approach to technical analysis.

Part II: Euro Currency
It is only fitting to begin our analysis of major currency pairs with the most heavily traded pair: the EURUSD. A comprehensive history and a detailed account of the Euro’s modern evolution are included here. More importantly we supply numerous charts depicting the status of the Euro currency in today’s marketplace.

Part III: British Pound
The old adage “The sun never sets on the British Empire” applies to its official currency too. This king of currencies has the highest parity ratio of all the major currencies (1 Pound = 1.70 U.S. Dollars) and is subjected to detailed analysis in this section.

Part IV: Swiss Franc
The Swiss Franc has always held a position of respect and honor in the financial community. Switzerland’s political neutrality and banking policies have contributed to its almost mystical attraction. In this section, we reveal its innermost secrets and mathematical properties.

Part V: Japanese Yen
To characterize the Japanese Yen with only one word, it would have to be “resilient.” Its decline and recovery history is very impressive. Of all the major currencies, it has the lowest parity ratio (110 Yen = 1 U.S. Dollar). The Yen is heavily influenced by Japanese banking policies and national intervention, the technical results of which are thoroughly examined in this section.

Part VI: Cross Rates
In this section, we examine the six non-USD cross rates: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURJPY, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, and CHFJPY which, fortunately, no longer carry outlandish transaction costs, making them now available to small-cap investors.

Part VII: Comparative Studies
Here we analyze spot currency prices with comparable futures prices and precious metals. We also examine a global synthetic currency called the Mundo that we concocted in order to describe the interrelationships between price fluctuations within the five major currencies.

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Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts takes an in-depth look at 103 candlesticks, from identification guidelines, to statistical analysis of their behavior, to detailed trading tactics. Never before has a book combined a comprehensive list of candlesticks with a statistical review of their performance...until now.

This easy to read and use reference book follows the same format as the best-selling Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.

In each chapter of Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts you'll find: - Behavior and Rank shows how each candle is theoretically supposed to work and how it actually does, with rankings against other candlesticks plus the psychology behind the pattern. - Identification Guidelines describe what to look for. - Statistics include the following tables: general statistics, height statistics, volume stats, reversal rates, and performance indicators. - Trading Tactics discuss strategies to increase profits and minimize risk - Sample Trade walks you through a hypothetical or actual trade using real data. - For Best Performance is a quick reference table of selection tips to boost performance Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts also includes chapters covering important findings, a statistics summary, glossary/methodology, and a visual index to make candlestick identification easy.

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Trading in the foreign exchange (forex) currency markets has recently exceeded $2 trillion a day and this figure is expected to double within the next five years.

The reason for this astonishing surge in trading popularity is quite simple: no commissions, low transaction costs, easy access to online currency markets, no middlemen, no fixed lot order sizes, high liquidity, low margin with high leverage, and limited regulations. These factors have already attracted the attention of both neophyte traders and veteran speculators in other financial markets.

ABOUT THIS BOOK

Immediately following the publication of Getting Started in Currency Trading, the authors received an overwhelming number of inquiries and requests for more detailed information on the mechanics of currency day trading, market entry timing, and which positions to initiate in forex markets.

The authors hope to fill that void with the publication of the current volume. We have concentrated our primary focus on the most lethal weapons in the technical analysis arsenal: the traders’ charts, pristine in their concept and dynamic in their visual presentation of both raw and processed data. Numerous groundbreaking and innovative additions to charting theory have been included here. Also several well-known classical charting types have been updated and modified to scrutinize the unique characteristics of forex data.

HOW THIS BOOK IS ORGANIZED

Part I: Forex-Specific Charting Techniques
Much of the material in this section originally appeared in a collection of technical currency studies called Forex Charting Companion: Innovative Charting Techniques for Currency Traders by the same co-authors. Many of the charts along with the corresponding data have been revised to reflect the current personality of the spot currency market.

Part II: Point and Figure Charting
Point and figure (P&F) charting was invented in the 1890s and has since evolved into a highly respectable technical analysis tool for detecting market entry signals. Although P&F was originally designed for use on the stock exchange, all the examples in Part II focus directly on the spot currency markets (with some startling results). This section is actually a revised update of The Point & Figure Chartist’s:Companion: The Computer-Side Reference for Currency Traders and Analysts, also by the co-authors.

Part III: Forex Swing Charting
Like their sibling P&F charts, swing charts are also members of that genre of charts normally referred to as reversal charts. Their shared advantage is their ability to filter out minor price fluctuations and highlight the critical inflection points in a price chart. This section is also an update of an earlier work entitled The Swing Trader’s Companion: The Computer-Side Reference for Swing Traders and Analysts.

Part IV: Other Reversal Charts
Both Western and Japanese reversal charts are examined in detail in this section. Knowledge of unusual and exotic charting techniques can only benefit the currency day trader since this knowledge assists in scrutinizing the same data through a different perspective.

Part V: Goodman Swing Count System
In this section, the authors examine the actual trading system of veteran trading guru Charles B. Goodman. His unique theories and hypermodern principles are accompanied by numerous practical studies and examples.

Is both an introduction and reference tool for beginning and intermediate foreign exchange (Forex) traders. This information-packed resource opens with a description of the Forex market and a section of clearly defined Forex terms with examples.

You'll learn how to open your own trading account by following step-by-step instructions and numerous screen shots that show you what expect inside a dealer's trading platform. You'll walk through the physical process of placing and liquidating currency orders.

Later chapters introduce various trading strategies and tactics in detail, along with some fundamental and technical analysis that will help you win in the exploding foreign exchange trading market.

Getting Started in FOREX Trading Strategies is intended as a sequel to Getting Started in Currency Trading (GSICT), although it may certainly be used independently.

One comment readers often make after reading the latter is, “Great, now I know the mechanics of FOREX. But what do I do next?” This book addresses that question. However, it does assume some basic knowledge of FOREX.

If you are new to currency trading, I suggest you pick up a copy of Getting Started in Currency Trading and read and study the material before starting this volume.

Readers’ expectations vary enormously. Most thought “getting started” truly meant getting started, but some assumed the book would carry them through more advanced training. A few were disappointed not to find a $19.95 black-box system leading to great wealth without effort. There is no get-richquick method in FOREX or any other market. Getting Started in FOREX Trading Strategies (GSIFTS) is meant to give you an initial perspective on various methods and a simple method on which to build.

In the lingering hangover aftermath of the great bull market of the 1990s and the carnage of the bursting of the bubble, professional investors are viewed with disdain.They are disparaged as overpaid and motley crews who have promised much and delivered little. Hedge funds in particular are shrouded in mystery and mistrust.

They are blamed for every spasm in the financial markets, and there is a perception that they often act together in vicious conspiracies to destabilize the world. Some see hedge funds as akin to financial pirates, preying on the innocents, and the people who run them are regarded as greedy and vicious hedgehogs. Recently the investment performance of hedge funds as a class has languished.

Everyone knows hedge funds have had dramatic growth. Assets have grown from $58 billion in 1991 to $972 billion at the end of last year. What is not fully understood is how volatile and market sensitive the hedge fund business really is. Morgan Stanley calculates that after eight years of growth, in 1999, the industry had earnings (incentive compensation plus fees) of $43 billon on assets of $456 billion or a return of 9.4% on assets. As stocks fell, even though hedge funds performed well, earnings shrank over the next three years to a low in 2002 of about $8 billion or a decline of 81%. Then as stocks rallied, they soared to a new high of $45 billion in 2003 before falling again in 2004.

I hope that these chapters, which are designed to be impressionistic glimpses of the investment business and its professional participants, will help others understand the intensity, stress, foibles, and insecurities of the men and women who manage other people’s money. I have also tried to capture the ecstasy and elation of getting investment performance right, and to describe the agony and despair of being wrong. However, for all its frustrations, being a professional investor is still the most intriguing, challenging, and overcompensated occupation in the world.

Incidentally, professional investors, or hedgehogs, are avaricious about making money and getting compensated, but they are extraordinarily generous in giving it away for a diverse assortment of charitable and political causes. Furthermore many contribute not just money but huge hunks of time, which is an even more precious currency. In many ways they have become the new eleemosynary class.

To protect and to avoid offending or embarrassing the innocent and unwary—and to foil those who are intrigued with deducing who did what to whom—many names, places, and dates in the narrative have been altered. In this process, some of the people described have become almost composites, as characteristics of firms and individuals were mixed and blended. On the one hand, I hope my disguises are effective. On the other hand, many of the events I have written about actually happened. There is much to be said for the old adage, truth is often stranger than fiction.

Why did I write this book? Because I love the business and am fascinated by its citizens. For many years I have found that the act of writing regularly, keeping a diary so to speak, not only helps crystallize my own investment thinking but also provides a record of right and wrong calculations, which is very instructive on future review. A diary helps you to learn where your thinking about people and events was right and where it went wrong. Just as some investors shape and sort their calculus by talking, I get the same effect from writing. For me writing is a crucial investment and personal discipline.

This book is a collection of disparate reflections and anecdotes. Some are related to events and sagas that occurred during my time at Morgan Stanley. Others are of more recent vintage and related to the creation of the hedge fund of which I am a managing partner and of one of its subsequent investment misadventures.Then there are portraits of investment friends and acquaintances. There are also a few reminiscences and stray thoughts about the battle for investment survival.This book is not a how-to primer.There are no enduring answers about how to invest successfully in these pages because I have none.

One of the attractive wonders of the investment business is that it is populated with fascinating characters, and hedge funds in particularseem to attract strong, obsessive, and often eccentric personalities. Hedgehogs are intriguing animals, and hedgehogging, the never-ending search for investment acorns, often reveals the best and the worst characteristics of the species. Hedgehogging offers an insider’s view that I hope will entertain and inform readers, regardless of their investment experience.

To achieve this advantage, you must first discard the belief that there is a linear relationship between risk and reward. The primary objective of investing (and trading) is to identify asymmetric opportunities.

To capitalize on these opportunities, you must learn to identify imbalances that reveal themselves in evolving market structure. But that is only the beginning—you must also understand the way you process and respond to information, so your ability to act is not blocked or distorted by peripheral influences.

Markets in Profile: Profiting from the Auction Process introduces a unified theory that explains the market’s auction process in relation to the human decision-making process, and the way market behavior affects human behavior. The bottom line? You

MARKETS ARE RATIONAL, PEOPLE ARE NOT

The “efficient markets” theory is half right. The market’s mechanism for allocating prices is extremely fair. It’s a simple two-way auction process by which price moves over time to facilitate trade either up or down—an extremely rational, efficient process.

The other half of the efficient market equation, however, is often wrong; people are seldom rationalwhentheymakefinancial decisions. The first step toward more profitable investing is to accept that market irrationality is due to the fact that people make decisions based on (unavoidably) incomplete information, which often results in the worst decisions being made when it is most important to be right.

Human nature is such that we tend to overweight information that supports our presupposed inclinations. We seek out a few pieces of the bigger picture that make us feel confident in our decisions. This recurring overconfidence is behind the idea that markets are “irrational in a predictable manner,” a landmark theory put forth by Nobel Prize–winning psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.

But Kahneman and Tversky didn’t take this information to the next level. They didn’t explore how to take advantage of that fact. In this book, we show you how the auction process both records and reveals market structure—and how, within that structure, predictability manifests itself in recognizable forms such as the “excess” that occurs at the end of an auction. We show you how excess is formed, too, and how to view it objectively in order to better manage risk.

All markets alternate between periods of stability and crisis. By monitoring market structure in real-time context, it is possible to recognize paradigm shifts in equilibrium. Market indicators such as excess make it possible to identify when the status quo is changing, which results in opportunities to distinguish favorable (and unfavorable) investment opportunities. In other words, it is possible to ameliorate risk by recognizing imbalances caused by irrational human behavior such as the herd instinct, which pushes price away from value.

Everyone talks about the problems of investing and market behavior.We are proposing a solution, a means of interpreting market behavior through the lens of human consciousness, and then quantifying that information in a way that enables investing on a more probabilistic basis.

IS THIS BOOK FOR YOU?

While this is a collaborative work, the rest of the preface and many of the experiences shared throughout the book are written from the perspective of lead author Jim Dalton, who has spent his career furthering his understanding and mastery of the markets.

As the lead author, I’m often asked if I’m writing for investors or traders. I believe such distinctions are in many ways arbitrary for there is no line where one stops and the other ends. It’s a spectrum, and every individual and every institution falls on a different point. That point changes constantly depending on the phase of activity. Even the longest-term investor should change his decision-making process in order to exit or enter a position. Trim, add, raise cash, change asset allocation—these are all timing decisions. In The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell could have been writing about markets when he described crime as not “a single discrete thing, but a word used to describe an almost impossibly varied and complicated set of behaviors.”

Perhaps you’re a growth investor. Or a value investor. Large cap, small cap—most institutional investors tend to pick a style and stick with it. The theories in this book are not dependant on the condition of the market, nor on what style is currently in favor. In fact, much of the power and appeal of these theories is that they are totally agnostic in terms of style, cap size, and asset class. The concepts you encounter are equally applicable to any style of investing, any timeframe, even any market, because the auction process works equally well for futures, real estate, art, even eBay.

The core idea is simple: all financial markets are measurable by time, price, and volume. This multidimensional approach to interpreting marketgenerated information enables you to differentiate between prices, because all prices are not equal. By extension, all opportunities are not equal, which is key in managing the probabilities of risk.

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